By-election Test

I enjoy a bet now and again, so when I found out I could get 25/1 on Labour losing Sedgefield my eyebrows raised. When I think back to Dunfirmline, Brent East, Leicester as well as the close calls in Birmingham and Hartlepool you can kind of understand why I would think that's a good bet. Thing is William Hill is also offering 8/11 on Labour getting over 60% of the vote in Sedgefield!! That's more than our general election score!

On a slightly less optimistic note you can get 3/1 on Labour losing "a by-election" eg either of those two. But 3/1 on losing Southall is pretty long odds for a seat we won on less than 50% of the vote, where there is a massive Tory vote for our usual by-election foes to squeeze. Could it be the Tories have headhunted a local candidate, Tony Lit the son of Avtar Lit the candidate who secured nearly 6,000 votes in the 2001 General Election. Nobody knows if Tony has actually joined the Conservative Party or not but given the communalistic nature of politics in Southall it would be difficult for the usual "2 Horse Race" tactic to work. Also the most recent national poll showing the Lib Dems on 12% does not help them.

So much for the once feared Lib Dem by-election machine, could this be the end for Ming Campbell? I think one thing is for certain, the "Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Chris Huhne" facebook group may be about to grow.

New Conservatism crushed by Polls

Since David Cameron assumed the leadership of the Tory Party we've all been watching in some trepidation to see what direction he plans to take them in. Early analysts predicted that David Cameron's background in PR would mean that he would be looking to 'modernise' the party- or at least it's image- in a way reminiscent of New Labour. However, without the drive and ambition of a cabinet like the Labour '97 line-up, Cameron has been struggling to convince his party and the country that the Tories actually have the confidence and ability to rule. As Quentin Davies said,

"Under your leadership the Conservative party appears to me to have ceased collectively to believe in anything, or to stand for anything."

It is true that the Tories have ceased to collectively believe in anything. The fact is is that the splits that were so obvious during Thatcher's latter years never went away- in fact those chasms have yawned wider. The only thing that is holding the party together is the thin glaze of PR and the frustration of being out of government. There are a thousand factions within the Conservative Party- and though the media has been concentrating upon supposed divides in Labour's parliamentary party it is the Tories who should be worrying.

We all knew that the Cameron effect couldn't last, and it is now, a year and more later, that we see the cracks emerge. The boost in the polls that has pushed Labour ahead once more in the polls has seemingly hammered one more nail into the conservatives coffin. The cornerstone group have been shifting uneasily at the change in the wind, suggesting that Cameron's method of 'wait and see' is no longer enough, and that the leadership should return to some good old fashioned tax-cuts and immigrant-bashing. Edward Leigh spoke out just the other day, and although he seemed to be praising Cameron his speech was full of sly attacks on his leader.

"The way that we fight back is to show that we are not weak, we are not driven by PR, we are a party of principle. As a matter of great urgency now, we ought to develop those policies. There's only one way they can go, which is the traditional Conservative way, the right policies, the progressive policies of successful countries around the world of low taxation, deregulation, strong immigration controls, strong defence and building on the social responsibility theme of David Cameron."

This little speech probably caused more than a few raised eyebrows in Conservative HQ as Leigh appears to suggest in one sentence that his party is nothing but spin these days and that the way forward is, metaphorically at least, to go backwards. With Labour now on anything between 38 and 40% in the polls, and the Tories on just 34-35, it is certain that some change is to be expected from Cameron. But the point is this- the Tory Party is not short of policies, just short of popular policies. Cameron is uneasy at any sort of return to the right-wing policies of the past, and yet if he follows the centre-ground all he will be doing is praising Labour. No matter which of the options he follows, he is going to be facing harsh criticism from some part of his party. The question for me is, when exactly is Cameron going to develop his manifesto? In doing so he will almost certainly alienate large amounts of his party. If he does so now, he at least has the chance to recover before the general election; if he doesn't then he will be facing major splits before his party goes to the polls. To hell with BBC drama's. At the moment the Tory Party has just as much intrigue and twice as much back-stabbing.

Reshuffle

OK so its a new government with new priorities, the reshuffle has seen Des Browne take on the dual role of Defence Secretary and Scottish Secretary. An obvious combination, whitehall sources claim he is already drawing up his invasion plan to recapture Scotland!

Did Council Incompetence Flood the City?

The Hull Daily Mail yesterday carried news that five years ago cuts were made to Gully cleaning and repairs which contribute to the worst floods Hull has seen for decades.

Now notice how Carl Minns simply calls for a "full review" rather than his usual trick of "Labour neglect" or whichever soundbite he is now using. I suppose it could be that five years ago it was in fact, the Liberal Democrats who ran Hull and his party which slashed highways funding in their first budget.

I wonder how full his "review" will be, will it be independent and will it appoint blame? Obviously not because his reaction already tells us who that is. There must be some panicking Lib Dems right now because no matter how many criticisms people can throw at the former Labour Council, they never flooded the city!

Another new comrade?

The net is awash with rumours of another defection tomorrow, fuelled in part by Ed Balls saying there is "more to come".

I just heard its going to be Rifkind. Seems too good to be true.

Labour's Newest MP

Quentin Davies has joined the Labour ranks to become the newest Labour MP. Defecting from the Tories on the eve of Gordon Brown's ascendancy he told Cameron.

"Under your leadership the Conservative party appears to me to have ceased collectively to believe in anything, or to stand for anything.

"It has no bedrock. It exists on shifting sands. A sense of mission has been replaced by a PR agenda.

I could not have said it better myself.

The Dream Ticket?

OK so Harriet was not my first choice but she was from far my last. It is true polls do show she makes the ideal running mate for Gordon but for the most part her most important contribution came during the question time debate when she said the challenge is not to position ourselves in the centre, the Labour Party is the party of change and we must stick to our principles but at the same time reach out to the centre to win support for left wing policies. This is what we did when we introduced the minimum wage, increased National Insurance to fund the NHS and boosted International Development Aid. Created popular policies which were radical but did not engage in the dogmatic politics of division which kept us in opposition for so long.

There are a lot of supporters of other candidates who are disappointed but as far as I am concerned we have elected a progressive, Labour to the core and understands what it means to exist in a modern setting.