By-election Test

I enjoy a bet now and again, so when I found out I could get 25/1 on Labour losing Sedgefield my eyebrows raised. When I think back to Dunfirmline, Brent East, Leicester as well as the close calls in Birmingham and Hartlepool you can kind of understand why I would think that's a good bet. Thing is William Hill is also offering 8/11 on Labour getting over 60% of the vote in Sedgefield!! That's more than our general election score!

On a slightly less optimistic note you can get 3/1 on Labour losing "a by-election" eg either of those two. But 3/1 on losing Southall is pretty long odds for a seat we won on less than 50% of the vote, where there is a massive Tory vote for our usual by-election foes to squeeze. Could it be the Tories have headhunted a local candidate, Tony Lit the son of Avtar Lit the candidate who secured nearly 6,000 votes in the 2001 General Election. Nobody knows if Tony has actually joined the Conservative Party or not but given the communalistic nature of politics in Southall it would be difficult for the usual "2 Horse Race" tactic to work. Also the most recent national poll showing the Lib Dems on 12% does not help them.

So much for the once feared Lib Dem by-election machine, could this be the end for Ming Campbell? I think one thing is for certain, the "Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Chris Huhne" facebook group may be about to grow.