New Conservatism crushed by Polls

Since David Cameron assumed the leadership of the Tory Party we've all been watching in some trepidation to see what direction he plans to take them in. Early analysts predicted that David Cameron's background in PR would mean that he would be looking to 'modernise' the party- or at least it's image- in a way reminiscent of New Labour. However, without the drive and ambition of a cabinet like the Labour '97 line-up, Cameron has been struggling to convince his party and the country that the Tories actually have the confidence and ability to rule. As Quentin Davies said,

"Under your leadership the Conservative party appears to me to have ceased collectively to believe in anything, or to stand for anything."

It is true that the Tories have ceased to collectively believe in anything. The fact is is that the splits that were so obvious during Thatcher's latter years never went away- in fact those chasms have yawned wider. The only thing that is holding the party together is the thin glaze of PR and the frustration of being out of government. There are a thousand factions within the Conservative Party- and though the media has been concentrating upon supposed divides in Labour's parliamentary party it is the Tories who should be worrying.

We all knew that the Cameron effect couldn't last, and it is now, a year and more later, that we see the cracks emerge. The boost in the polls that has pushed Labour ahead once more in the polls has seemingly hammered one more nail into the conservatives coffin. The cornerstone group have been shifting uneasily at the change in the wind, suggesting that Cameron's method of 'wait and see' is no longer enough, and that the leadership should return to some good old fashioned tax-cuts and immigrant-bashing. Edward Leigh spoke out just the other day, and although he seemed to be praising Cameron his speech was full of sly attacks on his leader.

"The way that we fight back is to show that we are not weak, we are not driven by PR, we are a party of principle. As a matter of great urgency now, we ought to develop those policies. There's only one way they can go, which is the traditional Conservative way, the right policies, the progressive policies of successful countries around the world of low taxation, deregulation, strong immigration controls, strong defence and building on the social responsibility theme of David Cameron."

This little speech probably caused more than a few raised eyebrows in Conservative HQ as Leigh appears to suggest in one sentence that his party is nothing but spin these days and that the way forward is, metaphorically at least, to go backwards. With Labour now on anything between 38 and 40% in the polls, and the Tories on just 34-35, it is certain that some change is to be expected from Cameron. But the point is this- the Tory Party is not short of policies, just short of popular policies. Cameron is uneasy at any sort of return to the right-wing policies of the past, and yet if he follows the centre-ground all he will be doing is praising Labour. No matter which of the options he follows, he is going to be facing harsh criticism from some part of his party. The question for me is, when exactly is Cameron going to develop his manifesto? In doing so he will almost certainly alienate large amounts of his party. If he does so now, he at least has the chance to recover before the general election; if he doesn't then he will be facing major splits before his party goes to the polls. To hell with BBC drama's. At the moment the Tory Party has just as much intrigue and twice as much back-stabbing.

Reshuffle

OK so its a new government with new priorities, the reshuffle has seen Des Browne take on the dual role of Defence Secretary and Scottish Secretary. An obvious combination, whitehall sources claim he is already drawing up his invasion plan to recapture Scotland!

Did Council Incompetence Flood the City?

The Hull Daily Mail yesterday carried news that five years ago cuts were made to Gully cleaning and repairs which contribute to the worst floods Hull has seen for decades.

Now notice how Carl Minns simply calls for a "full review" rather than his usual trick of "Labour neglect" or whichever soundbite he is now using. I suppose it could be that five years ago it was in fact, the Liberal Democrats who ran Hull and his party which slashed highways funding in their first budget.

I wonder how full his "review" will be, will it be independent and will it appoint blame? Obviously not because his reaction already tells us who that is. There must be some panicking Lib Dems right now because no matter how many criticisms people can throw at the former Labour Council, they never flooded the city!

Another new comrade?

The net is awash with rumours of another defection tomorrow, fuelled in part by Ed Balls saying there is "more to come".

I just heard its going to be Rifkind. Seems too good to be true.

Labour's Newest MP

Quentin Davies has joined the Labour ranks to become the newest Labour MP. Defecting from the Tories on the eve of Gordon Brown's ascendancy he told Cameron.

"Under your leadership the Conservative party appears to me to have ceased collectively to believe in anything, or to stand for anything.

"It has no bedrock. It exists on shifting sands. A sense of mission has been replaced by a PR agenda.

I could not have said it better myself.

The Dream Ticket?

OK so Harriet was not my first choice but she was from far my last. It is true polls do show she makes the ideal running mate for Gordon but for the most part her most important contribution came during the question time debate when she said the challenge is not to position ourselves in the centre, the Labour Party is the party of change and we must stick to our principles but at the same time reach out to the centre to win support for left wing policies. This is what we did when we introduced the minimum wage, increased National Insurance to fund the NHS and boosted International Development Aid. Created popular policies which were radical but did not engage in the dogmatic politics of division which kept us in opposition for so long.

There are a lot of supporters of other candidates who are disappointed but as far as I am concerned we have elected a progressive, Labour to the core and understands what it means to exist in a modern setting.

New Beginnings

As the day draws to a close we can look at the whole Labour Party deputy leadership campaign and ask ourselves: what have we got, and where can we go from here? Well what we've got is Labour loyalist Harriet Harman: aged fifty-six; privately educated; aristocratic family connections through her aunt, the Countess of Longford; Wife of Labour Treasurer Jack Dromey. During her time as an MP we've seen the many sides of Harriet Harman's politics. Her voting record in many instances is altogether predictable, with strong support for I.D. cards, anti-terror legislation and the Iraq war. However, she perhaps needs to clarify her position a little more with regard to equal gay rights, on which her record is rather lukewarm.

But what we really have to look to now isn't what Harriet Harman MP did in the past; it's what Deputy Leader Harman plans for the future that is important now. She has expressed a deep regret over the decision to go to war in Iraq, suggesting to me that either she has had some sort of personality change since she voted so strongly for it, or she has decided that electorally opposing the decision is the way forward. It is almost certain that her outward expression of regret had a big effect on the constituency vote. It became clear to all of us fighting the May 3rd elections that Mr. Blair was fast becoming a liability in the constituencies, so perhaps Harman's victory here shows a desire from grassroots members to distance the party from Blair whilst still hanging onto the spirit of his modernisation.

But what will Harman do? Is she to follow in Big John's footsteps as both deputy leader and deputy prime-minister, or is she going to merely keep the party role? The deputy leadership election has been front page news for weeks now, but it always seemed to me that the only people who really cared about the result in more than a vague sense were the politicals amongst us. The general public didn't seem to be bothered, and I think this reflects the attitude of the public towards the office of the deputy prime minister. John Prescott himself said:

"Let us get on with the organisation, strengthening the party, bringing back enthusiasm into it, these are essential to win the next election."

Harriet Harman has a far more difficult job on her hands. As the new party chair, it will be her job to rebuild the membership and restore our supporters confidences. After years of struggle with government the Labour Party is finding itself shrinking in numbers even as the new Brown-Harman ticket has resulted in a surge in the polls putting Labour at 39-36 ahead according to a poll by the Observer. The same poll also puts Brown as having the confidence of 40% of the population, compared to Tony Blair's 32% and David Cameron's 22%. However, the Labour Party now numbers just 180 000 members, and Harman will be facing a big challenge in making Labour the party the people again- as opposed to the party of the person as we become inextricably associated with Mr Blair. Regardless of his legacy- and it has been shown in a very complimentary light by nearly all the broadsheets and news sites- he has became an electoral liability for us now, and renewing our image post-Blair will be Harman's biggest challenge. It was sad to see Alan Johnson beaten by a mere 0.86%, but we can expect him to receive a senior cabinet post at least, and continue his good work in the new government.

Order of Events on Sunday

10:30am, NEC is informed of the result.
11:30am I roll out of my hotel room with a terrible hangover and seek breakfast.
1:30pm Arrive at the special conference venue.
2:00pm Start making the video for 18 Doughty Street I promised.
4:00pm Leave the conference
4:01pm Find a William Hill to collect my winnings.
4:30pm Start celebrating Alan Johnson's victory with drinking
9:00pm Train back to Hull

Fairly easy day it seems.

Update: Bollocks

Benn Unveils Youth Support

Hilary Benn's campaign has emailed out a list of his supporters in the Youth section of the party .......... its got 6 names on it.

Prediction

With one week to go until the declaration I am going to stick my neck out and say.

Johnson to win
Cruddas to come second with a strong showing in CLP and Union section
big gap
Benn
Harman
Hain
Blears


I think Benn and Harman could come the other way around, Harriet clearly has stronger PLP support and despite nose diving support since the start of the campaign I think Benn's name recognition factor is still carrying something. Benn may take some left support through his constant parading of his dad however Harman has been marketing herself as a left candidate. Perhaps she is more likely to take support from those on the liberal-left of the party less likely to associate themselves with "Old Labour".

Focus

Well after crashing my car in the election I figured I better get an eye test, picked up a fairly strong perscription pair today. The difference is amazing.

Blogging, Lib Dem bashing and failing degrees will all be so much easier from now.

Crashed and Burned

Hazel Blears campaign has hit new lows as the national media almost universally condemned her for her comments. Hazel, well known for her outspoken comments, has perhaps overstepped the line this time. I'm sure that her supporters were cringing behind their clip-boards when the news of her speech's reception reached them. It's all very well to be seen to be taking a tough stance on crime, or even to propose greater restrictions on immigration. However, by suggesting that immigrants are the source of crime, drinking, broken housing laws- she has unwittingly made herself appear to be as stereotyping as the more right wing members of the Tory party. Though obviously her personal politics are fairly centrist public perception is everything, and I think that whatever support she expected from the middle-class uber-politically correct members of the party has quickly dried up.

"Now, the community doesn't object to the people - they object to the exploitation and the fact that that leads to people being on the street drinking and anti-social behaviour. They don't object to the people being there but they object if they are undercutting wages and not getting the national minimum wage and they are not abiding by health and safety, so you have got to enforce the law."

I see Mrs Blears point- ramming literally hundreds of people into just a few houses, not providing jobs and not showing a great deal of support is probably a very good way to cause a mess very quickly. But the problem is the situation, not the people who are in it, and if we tackle the root cause- overcrowding, unemployment and uncaring social services- then we will fast see the effects- poor hygiene, crime and alienation- die away. In addition to this, the response from members of Hazel Blears Salford constituency has been one of bemusement. One local seemed confused by the whole debate, claiming that most of the people he met drinking on the streets were more native than the bedrock.

The deputy leader of the Labour Party is as much an ambassador of the government as a leader. Voters will be asking themselves whether they want a deputy leader who makes gaffes like this one. The fact is is that with the election coming up Mrs Blears has not just stepped on the proverbial banana-skin, she's taken a running jump at it. Whether she survives or not will depend entirely on how many people are aware of her past record, her personal views and her politics before Blair announced his resignation... ah. Well. About nine people then.

Blears Campaign Collapsing

Literally it seems Mr Cremin, the chair of Labour Friends of Sarkozy is unhurt.

Wareingwatch: The Suspects

Ok so there is a lot of talk about who is behind WareingWatch the blog dedicated to personal attacks against a former Labour Councillor in Hull and on occasion, myself. After a large scale manhunt, with many leads we believe we have it down to a small number of suspects. As Wareing Watch states personal attacks are acceptable, lets start with a few light hearted ones.

Councillor John Fareham, the leader of the Conservative Group on Hull City Council. Well we say leader, there are in fact only two of them so he also takes on the additional duties of being deputy leader, cheif whip, group secretary and treasurer.

Many of Wareing Watch's lines have been repeated by Fareham in the council chamber and elsewhere. John courted controversy by using the Guildhall Car Park to store untaxed vehicles.

John is regularly seen drinking, just about everywhere. Regularly complains about high levels of personal debt.


Councillor Carl Minns (Liberal Democrat). Leader of Hull City Council and regular lunchtime drinking partner of Councillor Fareham. John's obsession with Gary's blog may well have encouraged Carl to fill some of his spare time.

Failed Lib Dem candidate Craig Woolmer alleged that Carl began drinking at mid day on election day. Carl recently "fell" down the stairs in the Guildhall on his way to a meeting.

May have difficulty working a computer.





Councillor Adam Williams (Lib Dem). Served as Gary's ward colleague for 3 years. Part of the infamous Lib Dem "campaign group" chaired by local weirdo Kennedy Sloan (no im not making this up). Former westminster researcher, never had a proper job and was left out of the Lib Dems new look cabinet after a recent reshuffle. Once made a complaint against a Jewish councillor for anti semitism. Plenty of spare time.






Councillor John Robinson aka "fluffy". Our only teatotaller. Previously served on the board of Kingston Communications, one of the two highly talked about positions the council used to take on the board. Attending a two hourly meeting a month entitled him to £25,000. Yep, that is about a grand an hour!

John came up with the idea for a webcam in the council chamber. Was formerly an employee of Catch 21 Media Ltd however resigned mysteriously. Some say there were question marks surrounding his performance in the role.

Bobby not Bob

Well im glad to see bloody students got a mention in the Hull Daily Mail today, though if Angus Young (not the ACDC star) keeps refering to me as Bob rather than Bobby (even Robert would be preferable) I may have to start refering to Angus with a silent G.

Vote Early, Vote Often

Well I have voted twice, my party vote, my Labour Students vote which counts in the affiliates section. Still waiting for my ballot papers from UNISON, Fabian Society and a few others.

And they're Off!

The first of 3.4 Million ballot papers have been put in the post to Labour Members, MPs, MEPs and Trade Union members. Labour's electoral college system includes more people than any of the systems used by the other parties.

But with financial hardship how does the party afford this? In fact John Spellar raised exactly this point when he called for the contest to be scrapped. Well its simple really, you just charge each of the 6 candidates £5,000 for a copy of the party membership list. £30,000 should be enough to cover most of the costs, ontop of £10 per party member to attend the hustings and £50 for the leadership conference.

Navin Ramgoolam Backs Johnson

On a visit to Alan's Constituency in Hull the Prime Minister of Mauritius and leader of the Mauritius Labour Party Navin Ramgoolam has announced he will be supporting "whoever John Prescott is supporting" which of course is Alan Johnson!

Ramgoolam's Labour led coalition stormed to power last year on a promise to introduce free public transport to students, rock on!

Hypocritical Hull Lib Dems

New Lib Dem leaflets in Hull uniformly attack Gordon Brown weeks before he is even due to take office! Jumping the gun a little bit? Apparently Gordon Browns plans are "plain to see", of course unlike their own, three weeks after winning outright control of Hull City Council they sold Hull's £100m stake in Kingston Communications, without a single word in their manifesto, completed within days of its announcement and no chance for a verdict from the voters over what is to be done with the £100m slush fund they have raised.

Guess the quote

Middle class issues such as climate change, civil liberties and international aid are not election-deciding issues for the swing voters

Sounds like someone who isnt totally convinced by Camerons plastic reforms perhaps David Davis? Graham Brady? Our own Dan Cremin even? Nah it was Hazel Blears.

Brown faces civil liberties challenge

One of the defining factors of Brown's premiership will be his actions with regard to civil liberties. It could be a make or break situation for the new leader, as many of the parties supporters are steadfastly against the ninety day detention plans. A fear of the return of internment lies at the heart of the worries, with civil liberties campaigners focusing on the well known threat that is the slippery slope. However necessary Brown feels the move to be, however, he is keen to gain the support of the Guardian-reading middle classes. He has proposed a new system of seven day judicial reviews to make sure that suspects are not being held without reason, and to check up on collation of evidence. Mr Brown wants to make sure he is

"tough in the security measures that are necessary to prevent terrorist incidents in this country"

whilst at the same time maintaining the proper legal requirements. Phone tapping has also been a major subject of debate. Brown reputably plans to call the Tories in to have a cross party discussion. The Lib Dems may also be allowed to attend, so long as they serve the tea and biscuits. The use of phone-tap evidence in court is an especially controversial subject at present, with all the implications it could have relating to personal privacy. The Liberal Democrat spokesman Nick Clegg apparently chose to follow the traditional liberal path of congratulating Brown for his successes whilst at the same time condemning him for things he has yet to even hold a position on, never mind implement.

"It now remains to be seen whether this is just a procedural fig-leaf for more authoritarian measures or part of a genuine shift in guaranteeing and not undermining our fundamental civil liberties."

To me this seems like absolutely meaningless rubbish, worthy of a pat on the back for a good imagination if nothing else. It comes across as more slimy than Cameron's face, throwing the words 'authoritarian' and 'undermining' around for no real purpose other than to remind the listener that there is a third party and they are the party of opposition- opposition to everything. It's times like this that the Lib Dems remind me of the small minded guy who draws attention to himself by doing nothing more than endlessly pointing the finger at everyone else. A little pathetic, but then what do you expect?

The Tories maintained their position of opposition, although some sources suggest that if the political wind suddenly starts blowing the other way Cameron will U-turn like the wind-vein he is. Four of the Labour Deputy candidates- Hain, Harman, Blears and Benn have come out in favour of the ninety day detention. The independent reviewer of anti-terror legislation, Lord Carlile (LibDem), welcomed the cross-party talks. I wonder whether he will be popular at the LibDem peers next meeting. David Davis was uncharacteristically off-put by the announcement, being upset not to be included in the loop.

"It is extraordinary that the chancellor has chosen to publicise these proposals five days before the home secretary announces his counter-terrorism plans in Parliament. It does not auger well for cross-party attempts to build a consensus for counter-terrorism measures which the whole country needs to get behind."

I am sure Mr. Davis will recover well enough to think of a violent rebuttal.

Hope for the climate change debate...

Mr Blair called for a full discussion of the climate change issue at the upcoming G8 summit. He hoped that all of the main players, including the 'big three' polluting nations - China, the USA and India - would get round the table and have a reasonable discussion about a solution. Obviously the United States' refusal to ratify the Kyoto Protocol was a big backwards step for Green campaigners around the world, but the USA has recently stated that it will be willing to discuss a solution once the Kyoto protocol ends. Mr Bush stated:

"The United States will work with other nations to establish a new framework on greenhouse gas emissions for when the Kyoto protocol expires."


Mr Blair has been discussing the issue with African leaders during his latest and last tour. After talks with South African leader Thabo Mbeki Mr. Blair is confident that climate change in the developing world has to be the Germany G8 summit's biggest priority. The fact that the United States will be contributing to the discussion is a big step forward, and along with rapidly growing nations such as China, India, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa the G8 should be more free to dictate climate change policy that is meaningful. Mr Blair said:

"For the first time America is saying clearly that it wants to be part of a global deal. For the first time we have the possibility of a global deal with America in it."

It will be interesting to see exactly how conclusive the debate will turn out to be.

UNISON Comes Out for Johnson

My own union UNISON has come out in support of Alan Johnson for Deputy Leader. As nominations have now closed and ballot papers are about to hit peoples doormats its going to be interesting to see who the papers come out for, The Sun has already gone with Alan but the big question is who will the Guardian come out for? The paper is the most popular amongst Labour members and many beleive is likely to endorse Alan Johnson.

Unison Press release

31/05/2007

LABOUR LEADERSHIP: UNISON NOMINATES BROWN AND JOHNSON

The UNISON Labour Link (political committee) today voted unanimously to nominate Gordon Brown MP as Labour Party leader.

The committee nominated Alan Johnson MP for Deputy Leader of the party. It will also recommend that UNISON members give their second preference votes to Peter Hain MP.