New Conservatism crushed by Polls

Since David Cameron assumed the leadership of the Tory Party we've all been watching in some trepidation to see what direction he plans to take them in. Early analysts predicted that David Cameron's background in PR would mean that he would be looking to 'modernise' the party- or at least it's image- in a way reminiscent of New Labour. However, without the drive and ambition of a cabinet like the Labour '97 line-up, Cameron has been struggling to convince his party and the country that the Tories actually have the confidence and ability to rule. As Quentin Davies said,

"Under your leadership the Conservative party appears to me to have ceased collectively to believe in anything, or to stand for anything."

It is true that the Tories have ceased to collectively believe in anything. The fact is is that the splits that were so obvious during Thatcher's latter years never went away- in fact those chasms have yawned wider. The only thing that is holding the party together is the thin glaze of PR and the frustration of being out of government. There are a thousand factions within the Conservative Party- and though the media has been concentrating upon supposed divides in Labour's parliamentary party it is the Tories who should be worrying.

We all knew that the Cameron effect couldn't last, and it is now, a year and more later, that we see the cracks emerge. The boost in the polls that has pushed Labour ahead once more in the polls has seemingly hammered one more nail into the conservatives coffin. The cornerstone group have been shifting uneasily at the change in the wind, suggesting that Cameron's method of 'wait and see' is no longer enough, and that the leadership should return to some good old fashioned tax-cuts and immigrant-bashing. Edward Leigh spoke out just the other day, and although he seemed to be praising Cameron his speech was full of sly attacks on his leader.

"The way that we fight back is to show that we are not weak, we are not driven by PR, we are a party of principle. As a matter of great urgency now, we ought to develop those policies. There's only one way they can go, which is the traditional Conservative way, the right policies, the progressive policies of successful countries around the world of low taxation, deregulation, strong immigration controls, strong defence and building on the social responsibility theme of David Cameron."

This little speech probably caused more than a few raised eyebrows in Conservative HQ as Leigh appears to suggest in one sentence that his party is nothing but spin these days and that the way forward is, metaphorically at least, to go backwards. With Labour now on anything between 38 and 40% in the polls, and the Tories on just 34-35, it is certain that some change is to be expected from Cameron. But the point is this- the Tory Party is not short of policies, just short of popular policies. Cameron is uneasy at any sort of return to the right-wing policies of the past, and yet if he follows the centre-ground all he will be doing is praising Labour. No matter which of the options he follows, he is going to be facing harsh criticism from some part of his party. The question for me is, when exactly is Cameron going to develop his manifesto? In doing so he will almost certainly alienate large amounts of his party. If he does so now, he at least has the chance to recover before the general election; if he doesn't then he will be facing major splits before his party goes to the polls. To hell with BBC drama's. At the moment the Tory Party has just as much intrigue and twice as much back-stabbing.