I enjoy a bet now and again, so when I found out I could get 25/1 on Labour losing Sedgefield my eyebrows raised. When I think back to Dunfirmline, Brent East, Leicester as well as the close calls in Birmingham and Hartlepool you can kind of understand why I would think that's a good bet. Thing is William Hill is also offering 8/11 on Labour getting over 60% of the vote in Sedgefield!! That's more than our general election score!
On a slightly less optimistic note you can get 3/1 on Labour losing "a by-election" eg either of those two. But 3/1 on losing Southall is pretty long odds for a seat we won on less than 50% of the vote, where there is a massive Tory vote for our usual by-election foes to squeeze. Could it be the Tories have headhunted a local candidate, Tony Lit the son of Avtar Lit the candidate who secured nearly 6,000 votes in the 2001 General Election. Nobody knows if Tony has actually joined the Conservative Party or not but given the communalistic nature of politics in Southall it would be difficult for the usual "2 Horse Race" tactic to work. Also the most recent national poll showing the Lib Dems on 12% does not help them.
So much for the once feared Lib Dem by-election machine, could this be the end for Ming Campbell? I think one thing is for certain, the "Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Chris Huhne" facebook group may be about to grow.
6 comments:
Since when did Lib Dem poll scores nationally have any baring on thier results in individual contests?
Considering they managed to win the Dunfermline byelection when they were at one of their lowest points in the national polls and without a leader, I wouldn't put too much faith in national polls.
Having said that, the chances of anyone other than Labour winning Sedgefield have got to be slim to zero.
Shows that people are less likely to want to "protest vote" which is all most Lib Dem support is anyway rather than a positive vote for the Liberal Democrats. The fact you won a byelection without a leader only shows that.
I don't know what your implying by "you". Anonymous could I be anyone - I could be one of your fellow freaks in the HULC for all you know!
Boobyboy I would not write anyone off at this stage have just been looking on the net at the results for the locals. Who would have thought that Bransholme (built to stop the conservatives from winning Hull North same as Orchard Park) would come within 17 votes of being a Lib Dem ward and I bet after your party's behaviour over the floods had the election been after the Lib Dems would have won it.
Where is Bob Silby? We miss him
Labour supporters from Hull.
Not only are you evil sociofascists but you must stink of fish too!
No wonder you hate your country.
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